President Masisi’s BDP needs 5 extra years in energy

Botswana’s governing celebration – in energy for nearly six many years – is making an attempt to drag off a trick in Wednesday’s normal election by utilizing a phrase usually related to long-suffering opposition teams.

In its manifesto, the Botswana Democratic Get together (BDP) is asking for “change”.

“Let’s change collectively and construct prosperity for all,” President Mokgweetsi Masisi – in control of the nation since 2018 – writes within the introduction.

It’s an acknowledgement that issues have to be accomplished in a different way – the opposition argues that the president’s celebration just isn’t ready to do this.

Although analysts say the result of the election is tough to foretell this time, the BDP has received good-looking parliamentary majorities on the 11 elections since independence in 1966.

It subsequently secured the presidency each time as MPs elect the top of state.

The BDP has been credited with overseeing a peaceable and dramatic transformation of a poor nation, with only some kilometres of tarred roads at independence, into a spot the place common residing requirements are among the many highest on the continent.

Underpinning this transformation has been Botswana’s big diamond reserves – measured by their worth, the nation is the world’s largest producer of the gemstone.

And but all just isn’t effectively.

Botswana is going through massive financial challenges – therefore Masisi’s speak of change.

Multiple in 4 of the working inhabitants is unemployed, with a fair larger proportion amongst youthful individuals, in response to the World Financial institution.

Politics professor on the College of Botswana Zibani Maundeni described it as a “jobless economic system”.

“We’re producing graduates yearly and the economic system just isn’t producing sufficient jobs for them,” he advised the BBC’s Africa Every day podcast.

As well as, Botswana’s wealth just isn’t evenly unfold round amongst its 2.3 million individuals.

By a measure referred to as the Gini index, researchers say it’s one of the crucial unequal international locations on the planet.

And the diamond trade seems to be beneath strain globally as demand has been falling.

However Masisi and his celebration proceed to challenge confidence.

At a marketing campaign rally in an opposition stronghold in central Botswana, the president arrived in type in an electrical automobile assembled within the nation.

Getting out, the 63-year-old former trainer danced in direction of the stage greeting supporters in red-and-white celebration colors.

Laughter rang by way of the group as Masisi’s humour and charisma electrified the viewers.

The world – house to the earlier President, Ian Khama – elected three opposition MPs in 2019.

This was after Khama defected from the BDP to assist type the Botswana Patriotic Entrance (BPF), saying he regretted selecting Masisi as his successor.

The dramatic fall-out between the 2 males led to Khama leaving the nation, accusing the federal government of making an attempt to poison him.

Khama was then charged with cash laundering, amongst different crimes, all of which he denies.

It additionally ended the political dominance of his household – his father, Sir Seretse Khama, was the nation’s first president and served for 14 years from 1966.

“I’m sorry, please come again house and in addition name others over,” Masisi advised the rally pleading to voters to return to the BDP.

Hair-salon proprietor, Thandiwe Potso, 32, appeared satisfied.

“Masisi really understands our challenges and introduced higher programmes to fund our companies,” she advised the BBC, her eyes shining with conviction.

Kabelo Selemo, 45, agreed.

“His insurance policies have helped us develop as you may see we now not import greens. I consider in his imaginative and prescient for our future,” mentioned the small-business proprietor.

However in response to an opinion ballot, many others will not be really easy to persuade.

Revered non-partisan polling organisation Afrobarometer launched a damming report earlier this yr.

It mentioned that regardless of the nation rating extremely in good governance on the continent, individuals in Botswana had a damaging view of the federal government believing there have been excessive ranges of corruption.

“Sturdy majorities categorical little or no belief within the incumbent and disapprove of the way in which he has carried out his job,” it mentioned.

BDP spokesperson Kagelelo Banks Kentse questioned the credibility of the ballot.

He argued that Afrobarometer had in earlier elections underestimated assist for the BDP and thought it will be no completely different this time. Although the celebration just isn’t taking something without any consideration.

“I might be very fallacious to say that we’re over-confident,” Kentse advised the BBC.

“I at all times hear individuals saying: ‘That is the hardest election we’ve come throughout’, however we are saying that in each election yr. You by no means win earlier than the precise vote.”

He admitted that the unemployment price didn’t paint a superb image, however argued that each nation on the continent was experiencing related issues, including that his celebration was pledging to create 300,000 extra jobs.

Kentse additionally touted the toughly negotiated deal that Masisi struck with diamond agency De Beers final yr for Botswana to profit extra from its pure assets.

Initially the state will get a 30% share of the tough diamonds mined within the nation, a rise on the 25% it bought beforehand, rising to 50% inside 10 years.

However Dumelang Saleshando, chief of one of many largest opposition events, argued that the federal government has simply copied others’ concepts.

He mentioned his Botswana Congress Get together (BCP) had first set a jobs goal, which the BDP had beforehand rejected saying it was higher to depart issues to the free market.

One of many slogans Saleshando is deploying is: “Save Botswana”.

“I feel individuals have seen the BDP for what it’s,” he advised the BBC.

“It definitely can not argue that it’s an agent of change. Up to now it has at all times tried to say it’s about conserving stability – extra of the identical – and out of panic they’re making an attempt to evangelise what they don’t consider in.”

Supporters of one other opposition celebration – the Umbrella for Democratic Change (UDC), which bought the second largest share of the vote in 2019, got here out of their numbers within the north of the capital, Gaborone.

Wearing blue-and-white T-shirts and solar hats, they cheered chief Duma Boko.

Not like Masisi, Boko usually remained severe, as a way to emphasise how a lot the individuals had been struggling beneath the BDP.

He alleged that there have been makes an attempt to rig the ballot.

“I urge you all to be vigilant and after voting out the BDP you stay on the polling station to protect your vote,” he mentioned.

Thapelo Dimpe, a 45-year-old former trainer, has no doubts about why he needs to see the president’s celebration defeated.

“Masisi has allow us to down on schooling reform. The UDC plans to spend money on our colleges and empower our youth with the schooling they deserve,” he mentioned.

Though the federal government has a bunch of issues that might dent its assist, opposition divisions may allow the BDP to remain in energy.

Each MP is elected on a first-past-the-post foundation, that means that to win a seat, the BDP solely wants the biggest variety of votes in a constituency moderately than greater than 50%.

In a seat the place the UDC, BCP or BPF – or a variety of different events – are operating, it may imply that the opposition vote is cut up, permitting the BDP to get in.

“These events appear to have factionalism inside themselves, they hold taking inner points to the media – they don’t seem to be actually united,” political analyst Lesole Machacha advised the BBC.

However he additionally identified that the BDP had its personal issues.

“The ruling celebration just isn’t 100% intact – it is usually having points. In some constituencies BDP politicians who weren’t proud of the first course of are operating as impartial candidates, which may divide that vote,” Mr Machacha mentioned.

All this makes for a intently fought and unpredictable election, he added.

For one among Africa’s most profitable political events, the query now’s whether or not sufficient individuals are satisfied that it will possibly oversee the change that the nation wants.