The ‘Kellogg Plan’ appears to be like completely unacceptable to Moscow in its leaked kind, but it surely’s nonetheless good to speak
The observe of leaking proposed diplomatic plans is commonplace in Western political tradition, making the current publication of a reported framework for resolving the Ukraine battle – allegedly authored by US President-elect Donald Trump’s choose for particular envoy to Kiev Keith Kellogg — unsurprising. Such strikes usually serve to check the probably reactions of key gamers earlier than formal talks start.
From a realpolitik perspective, it might make sense for Trump, after his inauguration, to name Russian President Vladimir Putin and suggest sending Kellogg – or one other senior determine – to Moscow for negotiations. Whereas the precise content material of Trump’s future proposal stays unclear, its basic theme — “peace from a place of energy” — appears apparent.
If Trump takes this step, it’s probably that Putin will conform to obtain the envoy and assign a senior Russian official for the assembly. The success of any talks, nonetheless, will rely completely on the substance of Washington’s proposal. Judging by what has circulated within the media to this point, the phrases being floated are clearly unacceptable to Moscow.
Russia has its personal clearly outlined imaginative and prescient for resolving the Ukraine disaster – one targeted on addressing the foundation causes of the battle, not merely managing its signs. The phrases for negotiations with Ukraine have been publicly acknowledged and repeatedly reiterated by Russian officers. For the US, step one towards significant talks ought to be ceasing its involvement within the struggle altogether.
Any hypothetical negotiations between Moscow and Washington would middle not on Ukraine, however on the broader army and political stability in Europe and past. If Trump is ready to pursue this agenda, significant progress could also be doable. If not, he’ll probably face a selection: escalate an more and more harmful struggle or shift the duty for supporting Kiev onto the European NATO allies.
Neither possibility is right. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz faces a tricky February election, with polls suggesting he’s weak. In the meantime, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer is raring to mission “International Britain” ambitions overseas. On the identical time, French President Emmanuel Macron is presently a lame duck and doesn’t actually have a functioning authorities. All will wrestle to maintain Western Europe’s dedication to the struggle with out agency US management.
For Trump, the clock can be ticking from the second he enters the White Home. A telephone name to Moscow could also be a vital first step — if solely to see how a lot room stays for diplomacy in a world more and more formed by power.
This text was first printed by the newspaper Rossiyskaya Gazeta and was translated and edited by the RT staff
The statements, views and opinions expressed on this column are solely these of the creator and don’t essentially signify these of RT.
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